The Hon. Sajith Premadasa - Leader of the Opposition

¶ 01 Hon. Deputy Speaker, in this broad debate on the economy we expected a rigorous, data-driven, analytical discussion on the current status, challenges, roadmap, targets and monitoring. We learned a few hours earlier that the Hon. President would attend; he delivered a long speech. To me, it sounded like he had seen a very bad dream—speaking of cruel dreams, alleged conspiracies in December, and about tariffs.

¶ 02 When the US reactive tariff issue emerged, we, along with other Opposition parties, went together to the Presidential Secretariat and said: regardless of political differences, we should unite as a country to face this. There were urgent measures to take immediately after the Government came in; we pointed them out. They were not taken. Yesterday, I felt the President spoke under great stress, responding to an Opposition MP’s remarks. We expected a well-structured, analytical presentation. As the US reactive tariff drops from 44 to 30 to 20 per cent, I table my tweet:

¶ 03 “Glad US cut tariffs to 20 per cent for Sri Lankan goods. Puts us with Vietnam and Bangladesh while India pays 25 per cent. We should aim under 15 per cent to give our exporters real lift. We should have a team of trade economists and lead negotiators to keep this moving.”

¶ 04 Where is the cruel dream? We have never sought to darken the nation’s prospects. The President spoke of changes in December. Change should come through people’s mandate, not backroom swaps. Remember, when leaders ignore the people, they rise up organically—like in 2022. The conspiracy I see is the one where boundless promises of a “Prosperous Country – Beautiful Life” were made to the people and not kept, yet now implemented with a two-thirds majority. We, the SJB and our alliance, act in line with public will, not parliamentary horse-trading.

¶ 05 Let me focus on challenges. We need rapid economic and export growth. The President should present how to accelerate growth and exports. Today, poverty is a severe national problem. The Centre for Poverty Analysis and others show poverty engulfing the country across all provinces—around 45 per cent affected. The Government itself admits Aswesuma is not a solution to eliminate poverty. If not Aswesuma, what is? What is the plan to attract FDI? Where is the roadmap and milestones? We heard only political rhetoric from a Government MP; yet the President is the Executive President, not an Opposition MP.

¶ 06 Unemployment is rising; factories are closing; people are falling to the streets. What are the answers for the youth? If the Government cannot provide solutions to accelerate growth and exports, eliminate poverty, and attract FDI, then how will we pay the external debt from 2028? From 2028, we must pay about US$ 5.5 billion annually. Do we have growth targets aligned to meet that? Some international agencies forecast 3.5 per cent this year and 3.1 per cent next year; we want 5 per cent or more to meet obligations. We will not exploit people’s suffering to grab power; we seek a humane, programmatic mandate.

¶ 07 On global trade: we acknowledge the difficulty posed by shifting US policies. The reactive tariff has fallen from 44 to 30 to 20 per cent—we welcome this and hope for further reduction to 15, 10 or lower, which would boost exports. But note: the US conditioned this on “meaningful trade and security understandings”—trade and security arrangements. We need transparency on what trade and security terms were discussed. Was SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) discussed? ACSA? These are in the US President’s statement. The Foreign Minister should brief this House. If any conditions were agreed, the people and this Parliament must be informed. Entering terms and later refusing to implement them carries consequences. Transparency is essential.

¶ 08 The President claimed the main macro targets are achieved—growth, unemployment, BoP, trade, reserves. But what do people say? They say life is difficult; prices are high; supporting families is a struggle. Macro indicators mean little if micro-economy actors—households and enterprises—do not feel relief. Thus, we propose solutions: - A clear plan to reduce unemployment and prevent factory closures. - Revive an industrial program—both export-oriented and domestic-demand industries—similar to the earlier 200 Garment Factory initiative that leveraged quotas under the Multi-Fiber Arrangement. - A coherent strategy to truly accelerate growth beyond the current economic engine’s capacity, including targeted entrepreneurship programs.

¶ 09 With roughly 45 per cent in poverty, experts say handouts alone will not solve it. We need a structured program centered on saving, consumption, investment, production and exports—time-bound economic empowerment to lift households out of poverty.

¶ 10 We also need a fast-track export promotion program. Existing institutions like the EDB alone cannot deliver. Learn from Japan’s METI model—aggressive, coordinated export promotion. We should pursue FTAs where we have comparative advantage—particularly expanding into under-penetrated markets: Africa (~2.78%), Oceania (~2%), and Latin America (~2.39%). We must diversify products and destinations to reduce risk.

¶ 11 On MSMEs, which contribute about 50 per cent of GDP and provide around 4 million jobs: they are collapsing. To sustain 5 per cent growth to meet 2028 payments, MSMEs must survive. Ad hoc parate suspensions without comprehensive debt restructuring are not enough. We urged structured loan restructuring with concessional interest and haircuts; it has not happened. As parate relief phases out this year, waves of MSME failures will follow through year-end. We propose a formal MSME debt restructuring framework.

¶ 12 We must also diversify exports—IT services, processed foods and beverages, tourism and hospitality—tapping Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa and Latin America. Risk diversification demands we broaden beyond the US, EU and UK.

¶ 13 On taxation: can we drive growth with an excessive tax burden? The middle class is under siege. Both direct and regressive indirect taxes weigh on all. Rather than strictly following IMF lines, the Government could have negotiated adjustments to the DSA to balance sustainability and growth. Instead, everyone faces a tax mountain—from children and homemakers to self-employed, drivers, farmers, fishers, workers and professionals.

¶ 14 Finally, on “conspiracies”: the real conspiracy is the non-implementation of the “Prosperous Country – Beautiful Life” manifesto. For example, did the then-candidate not promise a 33 per cent cut in electricity bills—Rs. 9,000 to Rs. 6,000; Rs. 3,000 to Rs. 2,000? Now we hear it needs study and evaluation. That should have been done before making the promise. Please recognize the people’s heartbeat; go among them and see whether their income suffices. Do not engage in empty rhetoric here. Be humane and grounded. We will never participate in any anti-democratic conspiracy; our path to power is only through a people’s mandate.